Ex Uno Plures is a macroeconomic advisory and research firm founded by strategist Zoltan Pozsar. The firm specializes in analysis of global funding and interest rate markets, with a particular focus on the U.S. dollar system and the intersection of finance and geopolitics. ^{[1] [2]}

Overview

Ex Uno Plures was established in 2023 with offices in New York and Budapest. The firm's name is a Latin phrase meaning "out of one, many," which is an inversion of the motto on the Great Seal of the United States, "E Pluribus Unum" ("out of many, one"). This name reflects the firm's core analytical philosophy, which is centered on two forms of fragmentation. The first is the fragmentation of financial markets, where unified prices can diverge into many different prices during periods of stress, such as balance sheet constraints or panics. The second is the geopolitical fragmentation of the global monetary system, signifying a shift from a unipolar, U.S. dollar-centric order to a multipolar one with multiple competing financial systems and currencies. ^{[1] [3]}

The firm's mission is to help institutional investors anticipate and navigate disruptions in the global monetary order, particularly those arising from market stress and geopolitical conflicts, such as the rivalry between the United States and China. Its research methodology emphasizes a deep analysis of the financial system's "plumbing," which involves a detailed examination of the balance sheets of key financial intermediaries like banks and dealers to understand and predict market flows and stresses. This approach combines analysis of the current financial infrastructure with a forward-looking perspective on how great power conflict will shape new financial channels. ^{[1] [4]}

The firm's founder, Zoltan Pozsar, stated that the firm's focus would be on both the day-to-day mechanics of dollar funding markets and the long-term geopolitical challenges facing the U.S. dollar. In an interview, he explained the firm's name in the context of his career: "My retrospective on what I’ve been doing as a strategist for a decade is basically anticipating moments when prices fall apart in funding and rates markets... So out of one price you are dealing with many prices." ^[4]

"As Charles P. Kindleberger said “war cuts new financial channels” – our aim is to be your premier correspondent from the financial front lines of great power conflict…" ^[1]

"Our fundamental belief is that the only way to make sense of U.S. dollar funding and rates markets over the next decade will be by focusing not only on today’s plumbing but also tomorrow’s plumbing that will emerge from the conflict between the U.S. and China." ^[1]

History

Ex Uno Plures was founded by Zoltan Pozsar in 2023, several months after his departure from Credit Suisse. The launch of the firm was reported by Bloomberg on June 30, 2023. Pozsar announced the new venture and its subscription-based model during an appearance on the Odd Lots podcast, which was reported by financial media in early July 2023. This appearance marked his return to public commentary after a period of silence following his exit from his previous role. The firm was created to provide dedicated, in-depth analysis directly to institutional clients behind a paywall. ^{[2] [4]}

Since its founding, the firm and its founder have continued to provide commentary on major economic and geopolitical events. In November 2023, Pozsar participated in the Budapest Eurasia Forum, where he discussed the increasing link between finance and geopolitics and the trend of de-dollarization. ^[5] On April 30, 2025, he spoke on a panel at the Token2049 conference about the U.S.-China trade war and its implications for digital assets like Bitcoin. ^[6]

Key Figures

Zoltan Pozsar

Zoltan Pozsar is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Ex Uno Plures. Originally from Hungary, he is a globally recognized investment strategist with extensive experience in both the public and private financial sectors. He resides in Budapest and holds an MBA with a concentration in finance, accounting, and economics, having been educated in Hungary, Sweden, the United States, and South Korea. ^[7]

Prior to establishing Ex Uno Plures in 2023, Pozsar was a managing director and the Global Head of Short-Term Interest Rate Strategy at Credit Suisse from 2015 to 2023. Before his time at Credit Suisse, he served as a senior advisor at the U.S. Department of the Treasury and as a visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). During the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, he was the Head of Market Intelligence for Securitized Funding Markets at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). In this role, he was instrumental in the design and operationalization of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), a program created to stabilize asset-backed securities markets. ^[7]

Pozsar is known for several significant contributions to financial analysis. In 2009, while at the FRBNY, he created an influential "map of the shadow banking system," a detailed schematic that influenced regulatory action by the G20. He also gained widespread recognition for accurately predicting the major turmoil in the U.S. repo market in September 2019. His work is frequently cited by major financial publications, and he has been an invited speaker at prominent global forums, including the World Economic Forum and The Ambrosetti Forum, as well as at closed-door events organized by the Federal Reserve and China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). ^{[7] [4]}

Analytical Focus and Key Themes

The research produced by Ex Uno Plures is centered on several interconnected themes that reflect the firm's core philosophy of financial and geopolitical fragmentation.

Bretton Woods III

A central thesis advanced by Pozsar and central to the firm's research is the concept of "Bretton Woods III." This theory posits that the international monetary order that has been in place since the end of the gold standard in 1971 (Bretton Woods II), which is based on the U.S. dollar as the primary reserve currency, is undergoing a fundamental shift. The new system, Bretton Woods III, is described as an emerging order based on commodity-backed currencies, driven by geopolitical changes and the strategic actions of nations seeking to reduce their dependence on the dollar. This theme is a primary focus of the firm's "Money and World Order" publication series. ^{[2] [8]}

Financial Plumbing

A signature aspect of the firm's analytical approach is its intense focus on the technical "plumbing" of the global financial system. This involves meticulous analysis of the inner workings of money markets, including the repo market, foreign exchange swaps, and the Eurodollar system. The research often delves into the balance sheets of the world's largest banks, dealers, and government entities to understand liquidity flows, funding stresses, and the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy. This granular, balance-sheet-focused analysis forms the core of the "Money, Banks and Bases" research stream. ^{[1] [4]}

Geopolitics and Monetary Order

Ex Uno Plures consistently links financial market dynamics to global geopolitics. A core belief of the firm is that great power conflict, particularly between the U.S. and China, is the primary driver of change in the global monetary and energy order. The firm's analysis tracks the progress of blocs like the BRICS nations in building alternative financial systems and U.S. policy responses to these developments. This includes commentary on trends such as de-dollarization, the re-monetization of gold, and the increasing use of currencies like the Chinese renminbi in international trade. ^{[1] [5]}

The "Mar-a-Lago Accord" Concept

The firm's work has been associated with the concept of a hypothetical "Mar-a-Lago Accord." This idea, reportedly influenced by Pozsar's analysis and referenced in a paper by a former economic advisor to the Trump administration, outlines a potential restructuring of U.S. debt. The scenario involves compelling foreign creditors to swap short-term U.S. debt for ultra-long-term "century bonds" with low or zero interest rates. The stated goals of such a policy would be to alleviate the U.S. fiscal burden and strategically weaken the U.S. dollar. ^[9]

Publications

Ex Uno Plures produces several distinct series of research reports and notes, which are available to its subscribers. The titles of these publications reflect the firm's core areas of focus. ^[10]

• Money, Banks and Bases: This research series focuses on the topography and day-to-day workings of the dollar system. Its analysis is grounded in the balance sheets of the world's 50 largest financial and government entities. ^[4]
• Money and World Order: This series covers the medium

• to long-term forces shaping the global dollar system. It tracks the market implications of the Bretton Woods III thesis and the development of alternative financial systems by blocs such as BRICS. ^[1]

• Global Money Notes: A series of analytical articles on contemporary global finance issues. The archive of these notes dates back to 2015, indicating a continuation of Pozsar's work from his time at Credit Suisse. ^[11]
• Global Money Dispatch: A regularly published report or bulletin providing timely analysis on global monetary affairs. ^[1]

One specific publication mentioned in public analysis is a research note from May 8, 2024, titled "The End of Discipline," which argued that term premiums on government bonds were set to rise due to a fundamental shift in market dynamics. ^[12]

Business Model

Ex Uno Plures operates on a subscription-based business model, providing its research and advisory services exclusively to institutional investors. The firm does not cater to retail investors. The reported annual subscription fee is approximately $30,000. Subscribers gain access to the firm's research streams, direct communication with Zoltan Pozsar via chat, and invitations to conference calls and meetings. This model was established to monetize Pozsar's research, which had gained a large following during his time at Credit Suisse, and to provide dedicated analysis behind a paywall. ^[4]

Media Reception and Influence

Zoltan Pozsar and his work, now continued through Ex Uno Plures, receive significant attention from major financial media outlets. His analysis is regularly featured and dissected in publications such as the Financial Times, Bloomberg, and The Wall Street Journal. His research notes are often treated as market-moving events that can shape industry discourse. ^[8]

His reputation for prescient and deeply technical analysis has earned him descriptive titles in the press, including the "Repo Oracle" by Bloomberg and "the Sellside Jules Verne" by the Financial Times. The Wall Street Journal has described his writing style as "dense, esoteric—and a hit," highlighting his influence within the financial community despite the complexity of his subject matter. This high level of influence underscores the firm's position as a significant voice in macroeconomic and monetary system analysis. ^[8]