Zoltan Pozsar is the founder of the advisory firm Ex Uno Plures and market strategist known for his influential analysis of global funding markets, short-term interest rates, and the framework of the financial system, often referred to as its "plumbing." He gained prominence for his pioneering work on mapping the shadow banking system and later for developing the "Bretton Woods III" thesis. ^{[2] [3]}

Early Life

Pozsar was born in Hungary. He is fluent in Hungarian, English, and German. ^[4]

Education

Pozsar pursued his education internationally, studying in Hungary, Sweden, the United States, and South Korea. He graduated from the University of Pécs in Hungary and later earned a Master of Business Administration (MBA) with a concentration in finance, accounting, and economics from the KDI School of Public Policy and Management in South Korea. ^[5]

Career

Pozsar began his career in 2003 as an associate economist at Moody's economy.com, where he was hired by Mark Zandi. In January 2006, he and two colleagues won the MarketWatch Forecaster of the Month award for their accurate economic predictions.

He later joined the public sector, taking a position at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). During the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, he served as the Head of Market Intelligence for Securitized Funding Markets. ^[2] In this role, he was a key liaison on market developments for senior officials at the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, and the White House. ^[6] His work on the asset-backed securities (ABS) market was foundational to the creation of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), a program designed to stabilize credit markets. ^[2]

From 2011 to 2012, Pozsar was a visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where he framed the institution's official position on shadow banking and consulted for G20 working groups. ^[2] Following his time at the IMF, he served as a senior advisor at the U.S. Department of the Treasury from 2012 to 2015.

In February 2015, Pozsar moved to the private sector, joining Credit Suisse in New York as a Director and was later promoted to Managing Director. He served as the Global Head of Short-Term Interest Rate Strategy and was a member of the bank's Investment Committee. ^[5] While at Credit Suisse, his reputation grew significantly, particularly after he accurately predicted the turmoil in the U.S. repo market in 2019. ^[4] He departed from Credit Suisse in May 2023. ^[1]

Ex Uno Plures

In June 2023, Pozsar announced the launch of his own independent macroeconomic advisory and research firm, Ex Uno Plures. ^[4] The firm's name is Latin for "out of one, many," a deliberate reversal of the U.S. motto "E Pluribus Unum" ("out of many, one"). ^[8] The name reflects the firm's focus on the fragmentation of the unipolar, U.S. dollar-centric global financial system into a multipolar one, a central theme of his "Bretton Woods III" thesis. ^[4]

Ex Uno Plures operates on a subscription-based model, targeting institutional investors with research publications, direct access to Pozsar, and conference calls. ^[9] The firm publishes two main research series: "Money, Banks and Bases," which analyzes the day-to-day functioning of the dollar system, and "Money and World Order," which tracks the evolution of the Bretton Woods III thesis. ^[2]

Major Works and Theories

Shadow Banking System

While at the FRBNY in 2009, Pozsar created a conceptual "map of the shadow banking system." ^[5] This framework, which visualized the complex network of non-bank financial intermediaries and their role in credit creation, was pioneering. His work provided a foundation that was later adopted by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the IMF to monitor systemic risks posed by these institutions. ^[3]

Bretton Woods III

Following the G7's decision to freeze Russia's foreign exchange reserves in 2022, Pozsar formulated and popularized the "Bretton Woods III" thesis. ^[10] The theory posits that the global monetary order is transitioning away from the U.S. dollar-centric system that has been in place since 1971 (termed Bretton Woods II). He argues that a new, multipolar system is emerging, built on a foundation of commodity-backed currencies, gold, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), particularly among nations in the East. ^{[11] [12]} This thesis has been the subject of significant debate among economists and financial analysts. ^[11]

The End of Discipline

In a May 2024 note titled "The End of Discipline," Pozsar argued that traditional value investing in stocks is "dead" because the bond market, its foundation, no longer offers value or a "margin of safety." ^[13] He predicted an impending "bond revolt" where massive U.S. Treasury issuance would collide with waning investor demand, forcing a significant rise in bond yields to restore market discipline. ^[13]

Influence and Recognition

Pozsar is widely regarded as one of the most influential strategists in global finance. His detailed and often prescient research notes have earned him a "cult status" and a large following on Wall Street and social media, where his work is often shared among investors. ^[2] The Wall Street Journal reported that insiders trade his research "like music fans swapping bootlegs." ^[1]

He has been described by Reuters as a "markets guru," and historian Adam Tooze lauded him as the "Jules Verne of financial forecasting" for his intellectually fertile writing. ^[1] He has been a featured speaker at high-profile events such as the World Economic Forum and the Ambrosetti Forum, as well as at exclusive events hosted by the Federal Reserve. ^[10]

Publications

• Shadow Banking (2010), co-authored for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. ^[1]
• Institutional Cash Pools and the Triffin Dilemma of the U.S. Banking System (2011), for the International Monetary Fund. ^[1]
• Shadow Banking: The Money View (2014), for the Office of Financial Research, U.S. Department of the Treasury. ^[1]

Interviews

Zoltan Pozsar on His Next Big Move and the Coming Monetary Divorce #01

On June 30, 2023, Zoltan Pozsar participated in an episode of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast. In the discussion, he outlined his professional transition following his departure from Credit Suisse and introduced his new consultancy, Ex Uno Plures. The firm, according to Pozsar, is designed to examine both the operational aspects of the dollar system and broader developments in the international monetary order.

In the interview, Pozsar revisited his “Bretton Woods III” thesis. He described what he considers a “monetary divorce” from U.S. dollar centrality, noting that geopolitical tensions and the efforts of countries such as China to build financial structures outside the Western system are contributing to a shift toward a multipolar monetary environment. He suggested that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could play a central role in this transformation by creating alternative settlement mechanisms beyond traditional dollar-based channels.

Pozsar also commented on the banking sector difficulties of 2023, including the cases of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic. He distinguished these events from the 2008 global financial crisis, describing them as outcomes of liquidity and diversification weaknesses rather than systemic collapse. He observed that regulatory measures, including the Federal Reserve’s Bank Term Funding Program, contributed to market stabilization, while structural issues related to asset-liability management and interest rate exposure persisted.

The conversation further addressed the changing role of shadow banking. Pozsar noted the possibility of central banks becoming more directly engaged in foreign exchange markets and liquidity provision. He also mentioned renewed interest in gold as a monetary asset, particularly among states aiming to reduce dependence on the dollar.

According to Pozsar, these developments indicate broader adjustments in global finance, shaped by geopolitical realignment, technological innovation in digital currencies, and evolving roles for central banks. Ex Uno Plures, his consultancy, was described as an initiative to provide institutional research on both immediate dynamics of the dollar system and long-term structural changes in the monetary landscape. ^[17]