Polymarket is an online prediction market platform where users can trade on the outcomes of future real-world events. The platform aggregates user speculation to create crowd-sourced probabilities on various topics, with the price of a share in a specific outcome reflecting the market's perceived likelihood of that event occurring. ^[1]​

Overview

Polymarket operates as an information markets platform, allowing participants to buy and sell shares in the outcomes of events. The core principle is that the market price of an outcome serves as a real-time indicator of its probability. For example, if shares for a "Yes" outcome in a market are trading at 27%, the collective belief of the market participants is that there is a 27% chance of that event happening. The platform positions itself as "The World's Largest Prediction Market™". ^{[1] [2]}​

The platform is designed to cover a broad spectrum of verifiable future events, creating speculative markets for topics ranging from politics and finance to sports and pop culture. By participating, users contribute to a pool of collective intelligence, with the resulting market data offering insights into public sentiment and expectations. Trading on the platform involves a substantial risk of loss, a warning which is noted for users. ^[1]​

History

Polymarket's public presence began around May 2020, the month its official account on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) was created. ^[2]​

Partnership with Substack

In February 2026, Polymarket announced an exclusive partnership with the online publishing platform Substack. The collaboration was designed to provide Substack writers with native tools to embed and display live market data directly within their articles and newsletters. The stated goal of the integration was to enhance journalism with real-time market probabilities. In its announcement, Polymarket stated, "Journalism is better when it’s backed by live markets." ^[2]​

Platform Mechanics

The platform's functionality is centered on creating and trading in markets tied to specific, resolvable future events. Participants trade shares whose value is determined by the final outcome of the event.

Market Types

Polymarket features two primary types of markets:

• Binary Markets: These markets present a simple "Yes" or "No" question. Participants trade shares in either the "Yes" or "No" outcome. An example of such a market is, "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?". ^[1]
• Categorical Markets: These markets offer multiple potential outcomes for a single event. Participants can buy and sell shares corresponding to each specific outcome. An example is a market on the "Presidential Election Winner 2028," which would feature shares for multiple candidates. ^[1]

Trading and Pricing

The price of a share for any given outcome is displayed as a percentage, ranging from less than 1% to 100%. This price represents the market's real-time consensus on the probability of that outcome occurring. If an outcome is ultimately correct, its shares resolve to 100% of their value; if incorrect, they resolve to 0%. Each market also displays its total trading volume, which serves as an indicator of liquidity and user engagement on that specific topic. ^[1]​

Platform Features

In addition to its core trading functions, Polymarket offers several other features:

• APIs: The platform provides APIs for developers to access market data and integrate it into other applications. Documentation for these tools is available on a dedicated developer site. ^[1]
• Leaderboard: A public leaderboard tracks the performance of the top traders on the platform. ^[2]
• Rewards: A rewards section is included as part of the platform's community features. ^[1]

Market Coverage

Polymarket offers markets across a wide array of categories, allowing users to trade on events in diverse fields. The platform organizes these markets into sections and allows users to filter by "Trending," "Breaking," and "New" events.

Categories available on the platform include:

• Politics
• Sports (including live events)
• Crypto
• Finance
• Geopolitics
• Corporate Earnings
• Tech
• Culture
• World Events
• Economy
• Climate & Science
• Elections
• Mentions

The platform is known for its timely market creation, often launching new markets in response to breaking news and current events. This has included markets on geopolitical tensions, such as "Will Iran close its airspace this month?", as well as cultural events and political specifics, like a market on the nicknames a politician might use during a speech. ^{[1] [2]}​

Prominent Markets

As of February 19, 2026, several high-volume markets were active on the platform, illustrating its scale and areas of user interest:

• Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: This market had a total trading volume of $680 million, with leading odds for Gavin Newsom (27%) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%).
• US strikes Iran by Dec 31, 2026?: With a volume of $308 million, the market showed a 77% probability for "Yes."
• Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: This market reached $309 million in volume, with J.D. Vance at 44% and Marco Rubio at 14%.
• Presidential Election Winner 2028: Total volume stood at $304 million, with odds favoring JD Vance (24%) over Gavin Newsom (17%).
• 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner: This categorical market had $164 million in volume, with Spain (16%), England (14%), and France (12%) as the top contenders.

This data highlights the platform's significant activity in political, geopolitical, and sports-related predictions. ^[1]​

Corporate and Legal Structure

Polymarket operates through two distinct legal entities to serve its global and United States-based users separately. This bifurcated structure addresses different regulatory environments.

International Operations

The primary international platform, located at polymarket.com, is operated by Adventure One QSS Inc. A disclaimer on this site explicitly states that it is not regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). ^[1]​

United States Operations

For its users in the United States, the platform operates a separate, regulated entity at polymarket.us. This platform is run by QCX LLC (doing business as Polymarket US) and is registered with the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market (DCM). This designation ensures its compliance with U.S. commodities and derivatives trading regulations. ^[1]​

Public Perception and Media Presence

As of February 2026, Polymarket had cultivated a significant online following, with over 1.1 million followers on X. The platform utilizes its social media presence to announce new markets and engage with a community of traders and followers. An affiliated account, "Polymarket Traders" (@PolymarketTrade), also reposts content and focuses on the trading community. ^[2]​

Polymarket's data is sometimes referenced by third-party media outlets and online commentators as a barometer of public opinion. For example, the pop culture account cited Polymarket's odds regarding the casting of the next James Bond. This usage indicates an adoption of the platform's market data as a source for reporting on public sentiment and future possibilities. The platform also maintains an official Discord server for its community. ^[2]​