Stephen Grugett

Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets and MNX. He co-founded Manifold in 2021 and later became co-founder and chief executive officer of MNX, an exchange focused on trading markets tied to artificial intelligence (AI) companies and the wider AI economy.^[1]​^[2]​

Education

Grugett attended Marist School in Atlanta from 2005 to 2009 and was its valedictorian. He studied at Yale University from 2009 to 2013, earning a Bachelor of Science in Computer Science and double-majoring in computer science and philosophy.^[1]

Career

Early Work and QwickBit

Grugett interned at Microsoft in January 2011. In January 2012, while an undergraduate, he founded QwickBit.com, which he described as a short-lived retail Bitcoin exchange. He said it processed thousands of dollars in transactions during its first 48 hours.^[1]

From January 2013 to January 2014, Grugett worked as a technology associate at Susquehanna International Group, a quantitative trading firm. His profile describes the firm as interested in game theory and probabilistic thinking. He later worked as an independent trader from August 2015 to August 2018.^[1]

Throne and Manifold Markets

From January 2018 to January 2021, Grugett co-founded Throne, a subscription group-chat service for creators. In December 2021, he co-founded Manifold Markets, serving as its chief executive officer until August 2026.^[1]

Manifold Markets is a social prediction game in which users create markets about topics including news, politics, technology, and AI, using play money to make predictions. Grugett’s profile lists the company as founded in 2021 and reports $3 million in total funding from one prior round.^[3]

MNX

Grugett became co-founder and chief executive officer of MNX in February 2026. He developed the project with fellow Manifold Markets co-founder Ian Philips.^[1][4]

In June 2026, MNX raised $6.4 million in a pre-seed round at a $40 million valuation, led by Village Global. The round was also reported as a $6 million seed round; participating investors included Byrne Hobart, Cambrian, Dwarkesh Patel, Finality Capital, Matt Liston, North Island Ventures, Relay Digital, and Scott Moore.^[4][5][2]

MNX began a beta in September 2026 and launched its AI-focused exchange on October 13, 2026. Grugett announced the launch alongside RealPalebone, Alex Masmej, and Azsantosk, describing the platform as one he had wished existed as a trader.^[4][6]

Futures and Trading Approach

Coverage of MNX futures identified thin liquidity and infrequent public valuation references as risks: relatively small orders could move prices sharply, leverage could magnify gains and losses, and a private-company valuation used at expiry could be based on a negotiated figure months old.^[4]

Commentary on AI Markets

In October 2026, Grugett argued that whether Anthropic and OpenAI were nearing recursive self-improvement was an important question for investors. He said such a development could give the companies a decisive advantage over Chinese laboratories, support monopoly profits on inference, and increase confidence in continued large capital expenditures. He also raised the question of whether an initial public offering by Anthropic would reduce the possibility of its nationalization.^[6]

Interviews

MNX and the Evolution of AI Markets #01

On March 11, 2026, Stephen Grugett, co-founder of Manifold Markets and founder of MNX, appeared on Prediction Market Movers, hosted by Chris Gerlacher on the PredictionNews YouTube channel. The discussion covered the development of Manifold Markets, the creation of MNX, and the use of financial contracts to trade on developments in the artificial intelligence sector.

Grugett explained that Manifold initially considered a cryptocurrency model before adopting play-money markets in late 2021 and early 2022. He attributed the decision to regulatory restrictions and technical limitations affecting cryptocurrency adoption at the time. He described play-money markets as an alternative that allowed users to participate without financial stakes and enabled the platform to offer a wider range of topics. In 2024, Manifold introduced a sweepstakes model for election markets. Following legal developments that enabled competing platforms to offer real-money election contracts, the company discontinued that model and continued operating with play-money markets.

According to Grugett, MNX was created to address trading needs within the artificial intelligence sector. Its proposed markets include private company valuations, GPU rental prices, and AI performance benchmarks. He identified AI company employees and quantitative traders among the groups the platform aims to serve, distinguishing its intended audience from the broader consumer market associated with conventional prediction platforms.

Grugett also described MNX's use of futures contracts and trading interfaces featuring candlestick charts, funding rates, and open interest data. The platform's design replaces binary yes-or-no selections with contract-based trading mechanisms. He discussed perpetual futures as another planned instrument, explaining that these contracts can track an underlying asset, index, or other measurable data series without requiring delivery of the underlying asset.

The interview covered MNX's technical infrastructure, which uses MegaETH, an Ethereum Layer 2 network. Grugett cited transaction speed and cost as factors in the infrastructure choice. He stated that the platform was operating on a testnet and anticipated a mainnet launch with real-money trading in the following months.

Regarding regulation, Grugett described plans to begin operations offshore while seeking authorization to serve customers in the United States. He estimated that obtaining the necessary U.S. regulatory approvals could take approximately one year. The conversation also addressed the development of Manifest, a conference focused on prediction markets, which Grugett said was being planned for June 2026. ^[7]