RedphoneCrypto is known for offering insightful and thought-provoking commentary on crypto, blending philosophical perspectives with market analysis. Each year, they present detailed crypto theses, combining deep reflections, market knowledge, and speculative ideas that stand out for their style and depth. ^{[1] [2]}

Career

In 2008, Redphone faced financial difficulties and a car accident, which led them to study traditional finance, covering topics like stocks, interest rates, and monetary policy. This research eventually led them to discover Bitcoin, recognizing its potential to address systemic financial issues. Over a decade ago, they entered the crypto space by purchasing Bitcoin through BitInstant at a local pharmacy and navigated multiple market cycles, gaining experience in investing and blockchain technology. Redphone became interested in Bitcoin after learning about the Silk Road in 2013, which introduced them to the concept of financial censorship. 

Although their interest waned around the time of the Ethereum ICO, the launch of Ethereum reignited their engagement with crypto, leading to continued involvement in the space. In 2023, they became involved with Bitcoin Ordinals, a method for embedding data directly onto the Bitcoin blockchain, and proposed using ordinals for fungible token swaps. This idea evolved into the BRC-20 standard, influencing token activity, cross-chain integrations, and miner revenue within the Bitcoin ecosystem. ^{[3] [4]}

69 Theses

Redphone publishes annual "69 Theses" articles that present a blend of market analysis, industry predictions, and creative insights into the crypto sector for the upcoming year. The articles are known for their unique narrative style, combining detailed market understanding with speculative, forward-looking perspectives resembling futuristic storytelling elements. ^[7]

Interviews

Crypto Theses 2024

In an interview on the Defire podcast, Redphone discussed their crypto journey and their yearly “crypto theses,” starting with how they would describe Redphone to a new crypto user: ^[5]

“I’d call Redphone a crypto philosopher – one who believes this industry will impact every layer of society as it challenges money, power, collaboration, ownership and more. I took my Twitter name from my first Bitcoin buy back in 2013. I had to go to a pharmacy and place a MoneyGram order on a red telephone – basically swapping cash for Bitcoin, which arrived in my wallet two or three days later. I’ve been obsessed with all things crypto ever since. I use Twitter to share my hopes, fears, and dreams about the industry. My account’s stylized around a clown, which is a constant reminder for me to never take myself too seriously. The irony is Redphone often feels more real to me than my non-crypto social interactions. There’s something magical about going anon that lets you speak in ways you simply can’t when you’re doxxed. In effect, the mask falls away, and you’re able to feel your way closer to the truth.”

They then talked about what the “crypto theses” were and what their intentions behind them: ^[5]

“On the surface, crypto is about money, efficiency, and self-sovereignty. Under the surface, it’s all about power. It’s the eternal struggle between freedom and control; between peasants and nobility; the individual v. the state. I frame the battle as biblical because it is. This tech wouldn’t exist if there weren’t people willing to fight for it… many of whom risked their freedom to build out these networks… many of whom live in hiding or are quite literally rotting in jail cells. Crypto uses code not as a weapon but as a gateway to freedom. And I think that’s becoming even more important as inflation and radical politics back young people into a corner. If you’re at the bottom of society’s ladder, it’s hard to climb higher. It’d be almost impossible without crypto. I want to remind people that this isn’t some game, but something much more important to humanity’s future than we give it credit for. If you’re in crypto, you’re on the frontlines of the battle between freedom and control whether you admit or not.”

Redphone also shared the ups and downs of their crypto career: ^[5]

“I started in crypto with about $250. That was all I could scrape together over a decade ago… and even getting that required me working a second job. I didn’t really take my first profits until 2017 when I sold some XRP in late December. This sounds nonsensical, but selling it was one of the hardest things I’ve done in my life. I’d held Ripple for four years at that point. The coins felt sacred to me, and selling felt like cutting myself with a knife. I had some real world expenses to take care of, though, so I sold a smallish bag, got a new air conditioner, and then watched the markets implode. That was my first four-year cycle. And my first real lesson in separating my emotions from the act of harvesting gains. Re losses: In 2021, I was up massively, and I set aside a big chunk of cash to pay my taxes. Unfortunately, I set them aside as stablecoins, which I dumped in Anchor.” 

“When UST depegged, I lost most of my tax money and was forced to sell off other tokens, too. It was a pretty dark time for me, but I can honestly say my conviction in the industry never really wavered. We sign up for risk when we trade here. And that means you have to be willing to lose it all. Being a good trader is about more than reading charts and doing analysis. It’s about mastering your emotions, and that’s what keeps me perpetually engaged. I’m not trading against others, I’m trading against myself – against my lesser instincts.”

When asked about which theses was wrong and right, they responded: ^[5]

“Even though I knew prices would be bad in 2023, I didn't think all activity would fall off a cliff across every single sector in crypto. I said that we'd onboard more users than we ever had before, and I'm not sure that's true. I said we'd see lots of corporate adoption. We've gotten far less than I expected. I'd said we'd see radical expansion in use-cases and financialization of NFTs, and I thought the Telegram ecosystem would explode around The Open Network (TON). Lots of these predictions were early. And I could probably just copy and paste the same theses in 2024.”

“On the plus side, I said we'd bottom in 2023 and get an opportunity for violent gains. I said some of the horsemen would fall (i.e. Silvergate, Binance and Grayscale). And I said the most prolific crypto users in the future won't be human but AI. That's feeling more and more consensus now, but a year ago, it wasn't nearly as clear. AI + crypto are purpose-built for one another. And they will resculpt finance, art and culture in unimaginable ways.”

Towards the end of the interview, they shared other predictions for the coming year: ^[5]

“I’m excited about lots of things in 2024…. Some of my favorites are Bitcoin Ordinals (and more broadly Bitcoin + DeFi), institutionalization with fintech using things like Chainlink’s CCIP to issue real-world assets, gaming/metaverse, gamblefi, etc. But I’m probably most bullish on crypto + AI. If you buy my argument that crypto is the battleground for freedom vs. control, control over AI will be one of the most important battles humanity ever fights. We must decentralize it if we’re ever going to be truly free. It might take another cycle before we figure out the best models for decentralized AI, but I see the two industries merging into one. Crypto must exist for AI to reach its full potential, and the fates of the two industries will be intertwined from here on out.”

Crypto Market Talks

On the Crypto o’Clock podcast, Redphone discussed how they navigate the market when making their predictions and possible future outcomes for crypto. At the start of the interview, they described themselves as more of an investor, saying: ^[4]

“I consider myself an investor, though I just looked at my trade log and saw I’ve done 542 trades this year. Ultimately, I think of trading as a full-time pursuit where you need ready access to charts almost 24/7. Investing can be far more passive and it’s – in my mind – more of an intellectual pursuit. I look at myself as a participant in a global strategy-based game. All players can lose or accumulate assets. The goal is identifying assets other players will want before they’ve identified them themselves. Then, you buy those assets, and you put your final tool to work: time. It takes time for other investors to learn about and analyze the merits of any given project. It takes time to ship code, time to get more followers on Twitter to integrate with more partners, to land on more exchanges, to spin up arb bots, etc. Assuming you’ve correctly identified something that others will value in the future, you merely have to let time do its inexorable work.”

When asked about what skills they brought into crypto, Redphone responded: ^[4]

“I studied literature and creative writing at university. In my mind, literature is a gritty form of psychology or philosophy. It’s learning how others view the world through the vehicle of story. You uncover the motivations, hopes, and fears of others. You see their madness. You see their nobility. All that’s invaluable as an investor because it helps you put yourself in the shoes of other investors. More importantly, it helps you see the story underlying any investment opportunity. The more powerful that story, the better the investment opportunity. Outside of literature, I’ve probably worked about 40 different jobs over the years – from dishwasher to production assistant on film shoots to web dev. Web dev work was probably the most valuable for crypto. I don’t write smart contract code, but I can at least conceptualize how it works. I’d highly recommend some form of coding for everyone.”

They also described their market edge: ^[4]

“If I have an edge, it’s in identifying the story at the heart of any crypto project. Most cryptos have terrible stories because their projects are just money grabs. Every now and then, though, there’s a story that’s so powerful and true that I know it has the potential to change the world. Bitcoin has that sort of story… it’s non-sovereign money for the Internet Age. Ethereum has a story. It’s an unstoppable, global computer. Solana has a story. It’s scaling for the tsunami of finance that’s we’re witnessing move on-chain. Thorchain has a story. It’s permissionless cross-chain swaps that could render CEXes obsolete. Bittensor might have a story. It’s decentralizing AI… and that might be one of the most important battles we face in the coming decades.”

Redphone went on to talk about how they discover trends and pointed to future narratives users should pay attention to: ^[4]

“Discovering trends feels harder than it is. All you need to do is follow a web of smart people on X. Cream rises to the top and they all start mentioning the same tokens. Finding tokens before they’re talking about them requires tapping into a less public network of investors. Telegram and Discord groups are great. Best of all is joining an investing DAO that pools money to join private deals. I don’t even care about the deals so much as I care about hearing their opinions on the deals. I also think it’s important to stay in close touch with TradFi investors. You need to balance the crypto echo chamber against the broader world.”

“There are lots of future narratives I’m excited about but none have a shot at becoming as powerful as AI. In a lot of ways, humans are becoming less important to business processes. Robinhood has a couple thousand human employees. Uniswap v2 has zero. Crypto protocols like Aave and Maker do the work of thousands of humans. That trend away from human-run businesses to smart contract-run businesses is only going to grow. AI will accelerate that growth, and it will be processing transactions on behalf of humans in the background. A year ago, I wrote that AI will be the biggest end-user of crypto. That feels more true to me every day.”

Metaverse and Crypto

In a past episode of Crypto Hot Seat on TokenMetrics TV, Redphone discussed their approach to crypto, ethics, and the evolving landscape of blockchain technology. They criticized unethical practices among influencers and emphasized introspection in crypto decisions. Redphone highlighted crypto's journey from niche infrastructure to tools enabling broader cultural and artistic freedom, such as DAOs and NFTs. They shared thoughts on decentralized music platforms, the potential of the metaverse to foster anonymity and creativity and their belief in the necessity of decentralized cross-chain swaps, particularly through THORchain. They also addressed the challenges traditional finance faces in adopting crypto, likening resistance to witnessing transformative innovation. ^[6]